Thursday, September 30, 2004
Initial Response: Ugh.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think Bush “put Kerry away” tonight. I don’t think he needed to, but he could have. Kerry did something that was pretty risky: he went Michael Moore AND hawkish. Weird combo, but it worked, which is my point.
I expect the gap to close in the next couple of days. The follow-on debates won’t matter much because the viewer numbers traditionally drop off after the first debate, so this looks like a “limited damage” situation for Bush.
What also surprised me was Kerry’s insistence that he had only “one position” on Iraq. The common public perception of Kerry has grown to be that he’s been inconsistent, and his assertion tonight, that he’s been consistent, flies in the face of that perception and makes him look disingenuous.
A lot of the impact of this debate will be determined by how many watched it. All of it. If a lot of people started to watch it, but then turned it off (let’s say) part way through, then it tracks well for Bush. For those who saw the whole thing, I’d have to say that GWB lost some steam (and talking points) near the end.
But here I have to be a little self-analyzing. I watched this debate not for policy content (I already know about that), but for presentation and raw, nekkid political impact. How will the American public see this? Stylistically.
I really didn’t take into account whether people would be offended at Kerry’s way of thinking. So, since he took the Michael Moore rout, perhaps they are. We’ll see.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think Bush “put Kerry away” tonight. I don’t think he needed to, but he could have. Kerry did something that was pretty risky: he went Michael Moore AND hawkish. Weird combo, but it worked, which is my point.
I expect the gap to close in the next couple of days. The follow-on debates won’t matter much because the viewer numbers traditionally drop off after the first debate, so this looks like a “limited damage” situation for Bush.
What also surprised me was Kerry’s insistence that he had only “one position” on Iraq. The common public perception of Kerry has grown to be that he’s been inconsistent, and his assertion tonight, that he’s been consistent, flies in the face of that perception and makes him look disingenuous.
A lot of the impact of this debate will be determined by how many watched it. All of it. If a lot of people started to watch it, but then turned it off (let’s say) part way through, then it tracks well for Bush. For those who saw the whole thing, I’d have to say that GWB lost some steam (and talking points) near the end.
But here I have to be a little self-analyzing. I watched this debate not for policy content (I already know about that), but for presentation and raw, nekkid political impact. How will the American public see this? Stylistically.
I really didn’t take into account whether people would be offended at Kerry’s way of thinking. So, since he took the Michael Moore rout, perhaps they are. We’ll see.
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