Digitus Impudicus

Outside Reaction (Kerry Spot with Jim Geraghty Reporting)

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp

THREE PREDICTIONS [09/30 10:57 PM]

Overall thought: Compared to past debates, like Gore's sighing and
"lockbox", the Clinton-Dole snoozers in 1996, and Perot's nuttiness in 1992, this was a great back-and-forth debate. Two guys who just see the world completely differently, got up there, and each guy confidently made hiscase.

Prediction One: The Kerry camp will come out of this high-fiving, convinced their man did no worse than a draw on a debate that was supposed to be Bush's best area. They probably feared Bush was going to put this race away tonight, and so far there's not much sign he did.

Prediction Two: The Bushies will be a little down. Every time Kerry opened his mouth, conservatives thought of the eight different responses and attacks that they wanted to see, and Bush mostly didn't use them. Bush focused almost entirely on principles tonight, not policies.

Prediction Three: Here's my shocker: No bounce for either side out of this. This evening's comments just reinforced the messages that came out of each party's convention. Of course, Kerry got no convention bounce, while Bush got a fairly solid convention bounce, so maybe he'll get a little bump.

But my sense is that in the coming polls, Bush retains his lead, outside the margin of error, in the mid-to-high single digits.

UPDATE: Kerry Spot reader Keith offers this observation that I agree with: As much as some of us political geeks may have enjoyed tonight, because there was nothing shocking or surprising, there's no way that much of the public is going to watch two more 9- minute sessions of this. They'll catch a few minutes, but so far the debate has just confirmed what they already knew.

I don't think this varies from my initial reaction much. One word: draw.

Four more words: not enough for Kerry.